Publishing an article by researchers at Zabol University in the journal Scientific Reports, a subsidiary of Nature Publishing Group

According to the Public Relations Department of the University of Zabol, a scientific article by researchers of this university, Dr. Abolfazl Heidari, Dr. Jamshid Dovdan, and Dr. Jamshid Piri, entitled “Comparative Evaluation of the Reliability of PET and UTCI Thermal Comfort Indices Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Urban Microclimates” was published in the prestigious journal Scientific Reports published by Nature.

Aiming to evaluate the reliability of thermal comfort indices in hot and dry climates, this study introduces a novel probabilistic framework based on Monte Carlo simulation to examine six urban design interventions in the city of Zahedan, Iran. Field data included reference conditions, concrete pavilions with different vegetation cover, and tree shading. By running 10,000 simulation iterations, prediction uncertainties and probabilistic assessments were calculated for the two physiological equivalent temperature indices PET and the global thermal climate index UTCI. A new index, the “Thermal Comfort Reliability Index (TCRI), was also developed, which integrates the comfort and reliability of the system. The results showed that even the best configuration investigated, namely the concrete gazebo with full tree shade, only provides comfort conditions 20.56% of the time, and the probability of thermal failure in different interventions varies between 29.85 and 65.25%. A comparison of the two indices shows a significant superiority of UTCI over PET, with a performance 3.14 times better. Sensitivity analysis also identified the mean radiant temperature and air temperature as the most influential variables. Very low TCRI values ​​(below 5%) in all scenarios indicate a systematic failure in providing thermal comfort and clearly demonstrate the need for substantial climate adaptation measures in hot and dry urban areas.

This research, with an innovative approach to the reliability of thermal comfort indices and the provision of a probabilistic framework based on Monte Carlo simulation, is an effective step towards improving climate-friendly urban designs in hot and dry regions.

Article access link (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-33440-6